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Poll: Hillary Clinton Has Slight Lead Over Donald Trump

Published: Wednesday, August 3, 2016 - 4:40pm

The first significant poll since the conventions on how Arizonans feel about the presidential race is now out.

The Phoenix-based OH Predictive Insights poll shows Hillary Clinton with a slight lead over Donald Trump in a state that has gone Democratic once in the last six presidential contests.

The poll surveyed almost a thousand likely voters this week with a mostly Republican sampling and found Clinton with a 45 to 42 percent advantage over Trump.

While right on the margin of error, the new numbers may reflect a significant shift in Arizona’s electorate. When a similar query was conducted in June before the conventions, the Republicans had a six point advantage.  

“Donald Trump should be winning in Arizona," pollster Mike Noble said. "However, the numbers indicate that he has likely stifled his momentum since the GOP convention with comments regarding the Gold Star family.”

Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson gets 4 percent. The Green Party’s Jill Stein, 1 percent, and undecided 8 percent.

In the last 16 presidential elections dating back to 1952, only Bill Clinton carried Arizona as a Democrat in 1996.