As the latest COVID-19 wave fills a quarter of its hospital beds and half of its ICU capacity in Arizona, Banner Health braces for an extraordinary winter surge — perhaps as soon as next week.

Forecasts predict Banner will exceed 100% of licensed bed capacity by Dec. 9 and 125% by mid-month.

Chief Clinical Officer Dr. Marjorie Bessel said respiratory bugs often bring winter surges, but operating so far over capacity poses serious problems — especially with such a resource-draining virus.

"Remember that a COVID patient that we are caring for now is very difficult for our staff to care for," Bessel said. "They require much more care and attention than a normal, typical patient does."

The dwindling pool of out-of-state medical staff available for hire could deepen the crisis, spurring Banner to fill gaps in its roster with qualified corporate personnel. 

"Our rate-limiting issue as we surge — and we pierce through 100% licensed occupancy and 125% licensed occupancy — will be staffing," said Bessel.

Banner does not project resorting to triage standards in the short term, but that could depend on how well safety measures flatten the curve.

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